Q0 TRENDS IN USE

tors are the increase in library accessibility (through the ex-
tension of branch systems) and the rise in the educational
level of the population (through the extension of public edu-
cation). As formal education is the major correlate of the
use of public libraries, this steady rise in the educational
level has been translated into more extensive use of libraries.
More than that, because the formal educational level of the
population is still rising and presumably will continue to
rise for at least the next decade, there is a strong probability
that use of the public libraries will rise with it, assuming some
stability in other relevant social conditions and in the broad
organization and objectives of the public library. Other fac-
tors, such as income level, may modify this trend, but on the
whole it seems a safe prediction that in the long run the use
of the public library will continue to increase.

LIBRARY USE AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE The second trend in
library use is based upon the correlation between the circula-
tion of books and the business cycle. Circulation increases
during periods of economic depression and decreases dur-
ing periods of prosperity. And because public library income
is directly linked to the business cycle, it gets the least sup-
port just when it needs the most.

This relationship is illustrated by a comparison of publie
library registration and circulation figures during the depres-
sion years 1930—35 (Chart IV).

Increases in total circulation, adult circulation, and the total
number of borrowers all reflect the effect of a depressed
economy; substantially this is true of libraries in communities
of all population sizes. Increased leisure time for reading dur-
ing such periods is accompanied by lowered income levels
which presumably discourage book buying and book renting
in favor of free book borrowing from the public library. This
increase in public library circulation is compensated by a de-